The biggest free agent singing in NFL history happened in the off season, Tampa Bay’s capture of Tom Brady. His 20-years in New England included six Super Bowl wins and 11 consecutive AFC East titles. He now joins a franchise whose most recent playoff appearance was when George W. Bush was president, and whose last postseason victory was Super Bowl XXXVII, 18 seasons ago. Can Brady single-handedly reverse Tampa Bay’s fortunes?
Brady has said that he will run Bruce Arians’s offense, rather than the coach changing the system. In New England Brady often made quick-strike throws, but Arians prefers to get the ball downfield and typically utilizes all five eligible receivers, which will expose Brady to the pass rush. Offensive line play will be critical, especially considering the front five’s inconsistent play last year. One plus: Tampa Bay’s receivers far exceed what the Patriots had in 2019. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are All-Pro-calibre, and, oh yes, Rob Gronkowski has returned to join an already deep group of tight ends.
Tampa Bay’s biggest roadblock to a division title is the Saints, who are coming off back-to-back 13-win seasons and have the most complete team in the division. Drew Brees has mastered their ball-control passing game, and last year wide receiver Michael Thomas racked up an NFL-record 149 catches despite the fact that every opponent knew the ball was coming his way. The availability of running back Alvin Kamara, who was slowed by ankle and knee injuries last year, will make the New Orleans offense even more dangerous; Sean Payton likes to align Thomas and Kamara on the same side of the formation to prevent defences from doubling one of them. The Saints addressed a weakness in the secondary by adding Malcolm Jenkins to an already deep and talented group of safeties, and cornerback Janoris Jenkins, a midseason pickup last year.
Could the Falcons be New Orleans’s most dangerous challenger? Last year Atlanta rallied for a 6–2 finish after a 1–7 start, saving coach Dan Quinn’s job. That run was fuelled by a stunning turnaround on defence: After allowing an average of 31.3 points over the season’s first eight games, the Falcons gave up just 18.6 over the final eight. The offense has the pedigree for a big year with all 11 projected starters (including new running back Todd Gurley) were first-round picks.
The Panthers pulled the plug on the most successful era of their franchise. Gone are former MVP Cam Newton (released and signed by New England), two-time Coach of the Year Ron Rivera (fired, hired by Washington) and two-time Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly (retired). New coach Matt Rhule makes the leap to the NFL after running successful reclamation projects at Temple and Baylor. Free-agent quarterback Teddy Bridgewater rekindles his relationship with first-year offensive coordinator Joe Brady, LSU’s play-caller last year and an assistant with the Saints the year before that. The attack will still revolve around running back Christian McCaffrey. Carolina spent all seven of its 2020 draft picks on defensive players, this strategy will have to come to fruition or serious questions will be asked.
New Orleans Saints
Predicted Record: 12-4
Consistency and pure ability for the Saints’ will once again be key as they look to dominate the division for a fourth straight season and seize the NFC’s top seed. Fans believe New Orleans could up going 10–0 at the Superdome as they eye a Super Bowl return.
The defence will again be the best part but if the offense struggles, this season will be a disappointment. The Saints will claim a playoff spot but could get knocked out quickly if they don’t stay focused.
Atlanta Falcons
Predicted Record: 10-6
The Falcons will hope they can pick up where they left off in 2019. A good start will be crucial. This will get the offense firing on all cylinders, with Gurley regaining his All-Pro form. But with free-agent signing Dante Fowler rushing off the edge, the defence could get Atlanta into the playoffs.
If last year’s second half proves to be only a purple patch, and the home form continues (12-12 since they opened the Mercedes-Benz Stadium) then they will be in trouble. The Falcons have a tough home stretch as they play New Orleans and Tampa Bay twice each and travel to Kansas City. This really emphasises the need to capitalise on their good end to last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted Record: 9-7
The pandemic could make it hard for Brady to fit into the new system. This could make it hard for him to understand his supporting cast and the offense might take time to become coherent. If this happens, Brady’s frustrated body language will be the topic of conversation around the league.
If he can become part of Tampa Bay’s side quickly, they will thrive. This form will see him showing off his still-impressive arm with deep shots, made possible by an improved O-line that gives him plenty of time. If this happens, it is a possibility Tampa Bay capture their first division title since 2007.
Carolina Panthers
Predicted Record: 2-14
Carolina simply don’t have the players to compete, especially in a division this strong. After not drafting an offensive player last spring, the Panthers should go about getting Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft.
Despite a clear gulf in quality, no one knows what to expect from a franchise that has been rebuilt from top to bottom. This unpredictability could in the Panthers’ favour all year long as they prove to be a stubborn side to beat. If they can scrape together seven wins, this year will be considered a good one for Carolina.
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