The two top goal scorers in the league this season go head-to-head.
Leicester City host Everton but the main focus will be on Jamie Vardy vs Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Going into this match, Vardy has 14 direct goal involvements meaning he is responsible for 58% of Leicester’s goals compared to Calvert-Lewin’s 11 being 52% of Everton’s goals. This is despite the Leicester striker being 10 years older than the former Sheffield United striker.
Jamie Vardy has 10 goals and four assists in 11 Premier League appearances this season although five of his goals have come from the penalty spot. In fact, according to Understat’s expected goals model (xG), 0.45 of Vardy’s 0.95 xG per 90 (minutes) comes from penalties, an unsustainable number.
Whilst Dominic Calvert-Lewin is generating 0.60 of his 0.75 xG per 90 from open play but unlike Vardy, he is running hot with his finishing. Calvert-Lewin has scored 11 goals from an xG of 8.88. This means over the course of the season you would expect this to level out and DCL’s goals to dry up a bit.
However, using the same xG model, Everton have the fifth worst defence, 16.93 expected goals against (xGA), and Leicester have the tenth worst, 16.19 xGA. This along with Everton having a total xG of 20.33, third best in the league, and Leicester having 20.10 xG which is good enough for the fourth best, points to this being an open game.
Last 10 games (all competitions): 6W, 1D, 3L
Have scored seven in their last three, only conceding one
Already have 26 Premier League yellow cards, a league worst
Last 10 games (all competitions): 4W, 2D, 4L
Have scored five in their last three away matches but have conceded five in those matches
Have won four of previous four league meetings, losing the other four
Both strikers have been fortunate in the first 12 games of the season, but they should have chances to continue their streak in this match. The stats suggest this should be an open game, much like Everton vs Leeds.