Last year the NFC North looked as if it could be the class of the NFL. All it needed was for Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to break out, Aaron Rodgers to be rejuvenated under his new coach in Green Bay, the Vikings to continue dominating on defence and coach Matt Patricia to successfully implement the Patriot Way in Detroit. One year later, it’s a different story, any of the four teams could win it, but does the North have a single team that belongs in the Super Bowl discussion?
Start with the Packers, who are experiencing the kind of chaos you rarely see from a team coming off a 13-win season and conference title game appearance. After trading up in the first round to take quarterback Jordan Love rather than finding more help for Rodgers, there are question marks on offense. Perhaps just as telling as the Love pick, in the second round Green Bay took Boston College back AJ Dillon, a 250-pound hammer with open-field speed reminiscent of the Titans’ Derrick Henry. It looks as if coach Matt LaFleur is aiming to make the Pack more like his former team in Tennessee, built around wide-zone runs and play-action (of which Rodgers did more last year, but it is not a relative strength of his game).
Minnesota has no questions as to the quarterback depth chart after Kirk Cousins signed an extension that locks him in for at least two more seasons. But Cousins has always been more of a role player on a team built around its defence. That unit, however, underwent more turnover than perhaps any in football this offseason. Gone are Pro Bowl linemen Everson Griffen (10 seasons in Minnesota) and Linval Joseph (six), as well as three of the team’s top four cornerbacks, including mainstays Xavier Rhodes (seven seasons with the Vikings) and Trae Waynes (five). Coach Mike Zimmer has been historically loath to rely on rookies in the secondary, but first-rounder Jeff Gladney (TCU) and third-rounder Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi State) may have to play big roles immediately. While Minnesota brings back several stars—linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr, edge rusher Danielle Hunter and safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris are All-Pro candidates, the defence will remain solid only if the new pieces in the secondary deliver early.
The Bears have few questions on defence, especially with free-agent acquisition Robert Quinn providing a pass-rush bookend for Khalil Mack. But they have many issues on offense, starting with Trubisky. After a shaky 2018 was masked by team success, the Bears couldn’t overcome Trubisky’s regression in ’19. It impelled them to bring in Nick Foles, a high-priced free agent bust in Jacksonville. Foles does have a Super Bowl pedigree and knows Matt Nagy’s system from their time in Kansas City, but both quarterbacks lack the support they need; Chicago has little beyond Allen Robinson as far as passing-game weapons, and its rushing attack was hopeless a year ago.
In a wide-open division, Detroit could make a run. Before his season-ending back injury midway through 2019, Matthew Stafford was playing at an MVP level. No one noticed because the defence was flailing. Patricia’s D must deliver. Last year the pass rush was toothless, and that placed an unreasonable burden on the secondary. New corners Jeff Okudah, the number three overall pick, and former Falcons star Desmond Trufant, plus a rotation of young safeties, will have their work cut out for them.
Green Bay Packers
Predicted Record: 9-7
With a quick start, all the offseason drama could all have been paper talk. Momentum at the start would see Rodgers executing LaFleur’s offensive strategies to near-perfection and running backs Jones and Dillon causing havoc. Despite having a young secondary, they look to have one of the best defences. The Packers won’t match their 13-3 record last year but another title won’t be seen as a disappointment.
If the drama is real and spills over onto the field, the Packers could implode. An implosion would see the defence’s horrible performances from last January continue into this season. Not only would the defence suffer but also LaFleur’s attack and the lack of catchers would be emphasised.
Minnesota Vikings
Predicted Record: 8-8
If Zimmer turns in his finest coaching performance, getting immediate results out of a revamped secondary while the offense continues to be efficient and opportunistic then the Vikings could have a great season. Questions about Cousins’ ability to win the big games needs to disappear, as he engineers multiple fourth-quarter comebacks if he wants to squeeze in a division title.
With the massive turnover in personnel proves to be too much to handle in a shortened offseason, a positive season seems like a longshot. The defence is likely to regress, especially in its revamped secondary. Cousins often looks unable to carry the load. By December, the Vikings could reframe this lost season as a rebuilding year.
Detroit Lions
Predicted Record: 7-9
Stafford can do only so much, especially in front of a revamped interior offensive line. The pass rush will probably once again struggle, and this will put far too much stress on the young secondary. Another season is lost, and general manager Bob Quinn and Patricia could be gone well before Black Monday rolls around.
If Stafford picks up at the elite level he left off at before last year’s back injury, and the defence improving as Patricia gets more of his hand-selected pieces in the line-up, the Lions be a surprise inclusion in the playoffs. With good home form, they could get 10 wins, and which might be enough for the division title.
Chicago Bears
Predicted Record: 6-10
Nagy looks unable to get the offense going with either of his quarterbacks, as he toggles between the skittish Trubisky and the turnover prone Foles all season, with no help from the run game. At best, Trubisky and Foles will be serviceable. The defence looks fairly sturdy, but the turnovers fail to materialize for a second straight year.
However, it’s the surprising ground attack, led by David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen, that makes the offense go. If things go well, Mack and Quinn could become football’s best pass-rush duo, and the defence piles up 30-plus takeaways, bringing back memories of its 2018 dominance.
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