NFL Season Preview – AFC West

Once you’ve achieved your dream, what comes next?

After the Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2018, they doled out a spate of high-profile extensions, locking up some of the NFL’s best players into the early ’20s in hopes of a dynastic run. Two years later, the idea that Philadelphia would put a stranglehold on the division (and perhaps the conference) seems like an obvious stretch.

This offseason the Chiefs engaged in the same type of long-term planning, tying down defensive tackle Chris Jones to a four-year, $85 million deal and quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a 10-year contract worth nearly a half-billion dollars. Most of their best players are signed for the foreseeable future, as is 62-year-old coach Andy Reid. The same chorus of dynasty in the making that was heard in Philadelphia is echoing in Kansas City, but this time, it seems more believable. At 24, Mahomes is a transcendent talent who is only beginning to develop all the savvy that quarterbacks who don’t have his superior arm strength rely on. Reid’s catalogue of play calls gets only deeper and deeper, and his designs are simultaneously a chart for the league’s future and an encyclopaedia of its past. One can only imagine what designs Reid will conjure for his newest weapon, first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire; the versatile 5′ 7″, 207-pound running back had 1,414 rushing yards and caught 55 passes last year at LSU.

The NFL changes quickly, of course. At this time last year, few believed anyone in the NFC West could challenge wunderkind Sean McVay’s Rams. Then the 49ers surged, the Cardinals developed a terrifying arsenal of playmakers, the Seahawks found a spark on defence and the 2018 NFC champs receded into the pack.

The question is can anyone in the AFC West overtake Kanas City? There is no obvious candidate. The Raiders, who will be leaving Oakland to play their first season in Las Vegas, have done an impressive job at overhauling a roster (though some didn’t think it need to be overhauled in the first place). Still, their collection of young talent, including first-round pick wide receiver Henry Ruggs III from Alabama, second year running back Josh Jacobs and 2019 breakout tight end Darren Waller, plus the continued maturation of quarterback Derek Carr, makes them potentially formidable. The Chargers are beginning a rebuild after moving on from their quarterback of 16 seasons, Philip Rivers, now in Indianapolis, and they will likely spend the season transitioning from veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor to rookie Justin Herbert, the sixth pick from Oregon. The Broncos and second-year quarterback Drew Lock present the widest range of possibilities. Lock played well down the stretch as a rookie in 2019, going 4–1 as a starter while completing 64.1% of his passes. But this offseason the team puzzlingly parted ways with talented offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello in favour of former Giants coach Pat Shurmur.

Most likely, the Chiefs will be ruling this roost for a while. Having one team dominate for a long stretch can be a frustrating proposition, as the non-Patriots fans of the AFC East can attest. But at least we know that with the creativity of Reid and the charisma of Mahomes, Kansas City will be fun to watch.

Kansas City Chiefs

Predicted Record: 12-4

Other teams could struggle to get their new players up to speed. This means Reid, who has 10 offensive starters back, can focus on revving up an attack that was already running efficiently. The Chiefs could also get Edwards-Helaire to show why he was the first running back to be drafted. The gap between the Super Bowl champs and the rest of the league could only widen this year.
If complacency strikes, every 24-point deficit against a quality team is magically transformed into a 20-point lead. A few bad results and every now and again Reid outsmart himself rather than the opposition. We are reminded that repeating as champion is tough: The NFL hasn’t had back-to-back Super Bowl winners since the Patriots in 2004 and ’05 so the Chiefs might struggle this year.

Las Vegas Raiders

Predicted Record: 9-7

This could be the year Jon Gruden finally gets credit for designing clever offensive concepts, and rookie speedster Ruggs hauls in one long touchdown after another. Third-round picks Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) and Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) look like they could contribute. As the entire Las Vegas offense opens up, so changes the landscape of the AFC West as the Raiders pose problems to the Chiefs.
But if things don’t go well, Gruden will be exposed for believing he creates more clever offensive concepts than he actually does. With rookie camps cancelled because of the pandemic, it could turn out that 2020 was not the ideal year to have five picks in the first three rounds.

Los Angeles Chargers

Predicted Record: 8-8

Herbert might not see the field at all in 2020. This could be fine because coach Anthony Lynn has faith in Taylor, and this could be rewarded with a surprise playoff spot. The pair formed a strong bond in Buffalo, and Lynn’s belief in Taylor, who hadn’t started since Week 3 of 2018, could be exactly what the Chargers need. Tight end Hunter Henry looks ready to play all 16 games for the first time in his career.

However, is Taylor falters, Herbert will be thrust into action early and struggle, setting back his long-term development. The hasty turn to Herbert also consumes time that could have been spent expanding the offense and wastes part of the prime of wide receiver Keenan Allen. Departed running back Melvin Gordon could also be heavily missed.

Denver Broncos

Predicted Record: 6-10

Despite the addition of Gordon, the ground game might not be enough to sustain the offense with the air attack faltering. Linebacker Von Miller, whose sack total dipped to eight in 2019, could decline further in his 10th NFL season. All of this as well as Lock regressing under Shurmuer could lead to general manager John Elway deciding it is time for another hard reset in Denver.

However, most of the Denver fans are excited by Lock’s solid end-of-2019. This optimism could help the franchise. This optimism could also help with rookie receivers Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) and KJ Hamler (Penn State) joining wide receiver Courtland Sutton and tight end Noah Fant. If Lock leads an electric passing game, while free-agent signee Melvin Gordon joins Philip Lindsay to form a potent ground tandem, the Broncos could be a surprise playoff candidate.