AFC South is known as the strangest division in football and this season it is bound to get even stranger. The Texans traded their best player that’s not named Deshaun Watson, this was the off-season’s most second-guessed deal. The Titans backed out of the Tom Brady negotiations to focus on building an offense around Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill. The Colts handed the reins of their young offense to a 38-year-old coming off a down season. And the once-promising Jaguars went from chasing a playoff spot to positioning themselves for the number one pick in 2021 draft.
Every team, in some way, seems to be reeling from disappointment. Houston not only blew a 24-point playoff lead to the Chiefs but also a chance to host the AFC championship game. Tennessee, after defeating the heavily favoured Ravens, fell to Kansas City a week later. In Jacksonville, any sense of optimism that remained after a stunning run to the 2017 AFC title game evaporated with so many top players heading for the exits. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey forced a trade in the middle of last season, defensive end Yannick Ngakoue is trying to do the same this year, and cornerback A.J. Bouye was traded to Denver this off-season.
It is weird to consider that this division was a few plays from having its best two teams face off for the AFC title. And yet none of them felt the need to improve. Is anyone seriously slotting an AFC South team to make the Super Bowl ahead of the Chiefs, Patriots, Ravens or Steelers? Maybe, Tennessee signed Tannehill to a four-year, $118 million extension this offseason, but does the idea of him at the helm send shivers down opponents’ spines? And can a Watson-led offense inspire the same fear when he no longer has DeAndre Hopkins and his insane catch radius to target?
The Colts are arguably the division’s most fascinating team this year. While they have all the foundational pieces to make a serious playoff push, the signing of Philip Rivers, after 16 seasons with the Chargers, could be either remarkably good or just awful. Frank Reich is one of the best and most adaptable coaches in football, and he spent a few years with Rivers in San Diego from 2013 to 2015. But can football smarts and a history of shared success stave off Rivers’s decline? Especially as mobility has become central to the quarterback position and the development of modern schemes, Rivers is one of the league’s remaining throwbacks. He is coming off his worst season, with 20 interceptions and only 23 touchdowns. But he is also only a year removed from ranking among the NFL’s three best passers, and at this point he has seen and diagnosed nearly every scheme by every defensive coordinator in football. This experience could end up being invaluable.
You can definitely see what the Colts were thinking when they signed him. Imagine if Rivers regains his form of a few years ago while paired with the young skill position talent in Indianapolis. Then the strangest division in football may spring a surprise for everyone.
Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Record: 10-6
Rivers could show his old spark and perform like he’s at the peak of his powers, finding young wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell. Marlon Mack and second-round rookie Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin have the potential to become one of the NFL’s top running back tandems.
However, Rivers could prove to be in the kind of decline that even a good scheme cannot reverse, and the offense remains a neutral threat at best while some prime talent goes to waste. The investment in defensive tackler DeForest Buckner could go to waste. Indianapolis might look back with regret at the spring of 2020, especially as younger quarterbacks were on the market.
Tennessee Titans
Predicted Record: 9-7
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith looks like he can work wonders once again. Whilst wide receiver A.J. Brown looks like he can also maintain his form, while Henry could continue to punish opponents. If Tannehill builds upon his breakout season, he’d earning every dollar of his new contract. At the end of this season, Smith could be on the wish list of every team needing a coach.
However, the toll of last year’s heavy workload might show on Henry, this would come at a horrible time as the Titans gave him a four-year, $50 million contract extension with $25.5 million guaranteed in July. If they can’t find their spark, the Titans might have to turn to third-round pick Darrynton Evans who doesn’t look ready for a feature role.
Houston Texans
The Texans may stumble, and this will be highlighted if Hopkins thrives in Arizona. This might lead to Watson growing unhappy. The young players on the offensive line don’t look to be making much development and the internal divisions may deepen in Houston. A disappointing season may lead to Bill O’Brien being sacked.
However, if the Hopkins trade, like the Jadeveon Clowney deal of 2019, proves to be not as disastrous as the critics thought; the combination of Will Fuller plus newly acquired wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb could keep the passing game clicking. Running back David Johnson, picked up from the Cardinals as part of the Hopkins deal, could also regain his All-Pro form of 2016.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Record: 2-14
If running back Leonard Fournette doesn’t rally in his contract year, this would mark another disappointing result from a former first-round pick. After Ramsey stormed his way off the roster during last season, Ngakoue has to step up. If results go wrong and coach Doug Marrone can’t pull the locker room together and the franchise could quickly fall into turmoil.
For success, Gardner Minshew will need to develop into a reliable quarterback, and wide receiver Laviska Shenault will need to prove to be a second-round bargain. Despite only a middling record, the Jaguars could emerge from the season feeling good enough about their foundation to spend lavishly on free agents in 2021 and to a run at the division next year.
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